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The 'Vegas Rule' is Dead: CFTC Finally Clarifies Event Contracts

by James Sterling, Legal Correspondent

After years of legal ambiguity, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a definitive framework for political and event-based derivatives. Here is what you need to know.


The regulatory fog has lifted. On December 2nd, 2025, the CFTC released its final guidance on "Event Contracts," effectively ending the era of regulation-by-enforcement that plagued the industry through 2024. The new framework, dubbed "Regulation E," provides a clear path to compliance for platforms listing political and social outcome markets.

Key Provisions

  • Political Markets Allowed: Contrary to early fears, election markets are explicitly permitted for regulated exchanges, provided they adhere to strict anti-manipulation caps.
  • The "Public Utility" Test: Contracts must demonstrate a "public utility" related to hedging or price discovery. This formalizes the argument that election odds provide valuable societal data.
  • KYC/AML Requirements: All US-facing platforms must implement standard financial surveillance, effectively barring "anonymous" DeFi front-ends from legally soliciting US customers without licensure.

Industry Reaction

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called it "the moment we've been waiting for since 2018." Polymarket, which agreed to a landmark settlement earlier this year to re-enter the US market, stated that the rules "vindicate the power of free markets to reveal truth." Volume on regulated US exchanges surged 200% in the week following the announcement.