It started as a Silicon Valley experiment. Now, it's standard operating procedure for the Fortune 500. By Q4 2025, over 30% of large US corporations have implemented some form of "internal prediction market" to bypass corporate politics and get to the truth.
Better Data, Less Noise
Google's internal market, "Oracle," correctly predicted the delay of their latest product launch three months before project managers officially admitted it. "It's about incentives," explains organizational psychologist Dr. Marcus Thorne. "In a meeting, you agree with your boss to be polite. In a prediction market, you bet against them to make money (or reputation points)."
The "Middle Management" Problem
One unexpected side effect has been the flattening of organizational hierarchies. With prediction markets aggregating information directly from ground-level engineers and sales reps, the "filtering" role of middle management is diminishing. Executives can now see the raw probability of a project's success without it being rose-colored by three layers of vice presidents.
Implementation Challenges
It hasn't been all smooth sailing. Companies are still grappling with how to reward successful predictors without creating perverse incentives (e.g., sabotage to win a bet). However, the consensus for 2026 is clear: companies that ignore the wisdom of their own crowds do so at their own peril.