EU Regulators Eye Retail Ban on Event Contracts
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is moving to block retail investors from participating in the multibillion-dollar prediction market boom. According to a statement from ESMA, many event contracts may already fall within the bloc's existing ban on marketing binary options to retail investors. Regulators emphasized that companies cannot circumvent EU financial rules by marketing binary-style products as "event contracts," noting that a product's actual function as a derivative matters more than its commercial labeling.
US Regulatory Landscape Shaken by Supreme Court
As Europe tightens its grip, the United States regulatory environment is undergoing a historic shift. The Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling in Trump v. Slaughter has overturned the 91-year-old Humphrey's Executor precedent. This landmark decision clears the way for the President to fire SEC and CFTC commissioners at will, carrying direct implications for agency leadership as the CLARITY Act nears a floor vote.
Simultaneously, the SEC has opened a 60-day comment period on "Novel ETFs" covering prediction-market and crypto-asset funds. This formal request for comment follows SEC Chair Paul Atkins' May statement, which paused launches for over two dozen pending fund applications.
Kalshi and Polymarket Volumes Surge Despite Friction
Despite a mixed bag of legal battles with state gaming regulators across the U.S., platform usage continues to accelerate. DefiLlama data shows Kalshi posted a record month for trading volume in June, driven heavily by betting activity surrounding the expanded FIFA World Cup.
Offshore platforms are also seeing massive US demand. According to new data from Allium, United States users are successfully bypassing geoblocks to dominate political bets on Polymarket's global platform. For traders navigating these complex jurisdictional shifts, utilizing reliable prediction market tools remains essential for tracking global volume and regulatory compliance.