Polymarket Implements Time-Weighted Prices to Halt Exploit
Following months of warnings from onchain analysts, Polymarket is officially changing its pricing mechanism to stop an exploit that allowed traders to drain millions from the platform. According to CoinDesk, the decentralized prediction market is shifting to time-weighted prices to neutralize a "five-second trick" that made artificial price pushes highly profitable. The new system is designed to make such market manipulation too costly to execute.
Trump Media Scraps Prediction Market Ambitions
In a sudden pivot, Truth Social's parent company is completely abandoning its prediction market ventures. A Decrypt report reveals that Trump Media is unwinding two major deals with Crypto.com. Under new leadership, the company is liquidating its crypto treasury and shifting its strategic focus toward media, data licensing, and a planned merger with fusion energy firm TAE.
Regulatory Headwinds Mount for Event Contracts
The regulatory environment for prediction markets continues to tighten on multiple fronts. Democratic lawmakers are currently urging the CFTC to ban wildfire event contracts, citing severe risks of arson, insider trading, and disaster profiteering.
Simultaneously, state-level legal battles are intensifying. A New York judge recently denied a CFTC motion to halt New York's enforcement action against Kalshi. The state sued Kalshi on July 31 over allegations of operating an illegal gambling operation, creating a jurisdictional clash between state laws and federally regulated markets. Traders relying on predictionmarketstools.com are closely monitoring these cases, as the outcomes could fundamentally alter which event contracts remain available to US participants.
CLARITY Act Odds Shift to 2027
Legislative prediction markets are also reacting to recent congressional delays. After Senator Thune skipped a crucial cloture filing, traders on Kalshi aggressively repriced the timeline for the CLARITY Act. As noted by The Defiant, Kalshi's September 1 enactment contract has plummeted to trade at just 2 cents. Meanwhile, shares for enactment before January 1, 2028, have ticked up, pushing the implied probability of the bill's passage out of 2026 and into 2027.